Developing the Situation Awareness Model of Emergency Logistics for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Guangxi China

Abstract

This thesis selects the data of tropical cyclone (TC, or typhoon) disaster events as the logical starting point of the research. Through the analysis and deconstruction of the data of tropical cyclone disasters (TCD) events in Guangxi, data mining and other methods are used to build the requirements prediction model of emergency supplies (RPMES), the location model of emergency supplies reserve center (LMESRC) and the emergency supplies dispatching model (ESDM) based on the data of TCD. Finally, the functions of these three models are integrated to form the situational awareness model of emergency logistics (EL) for TCD in Guangxi, which provides a series of schemes for Guangxi governments at all levels to carry out TCD relief in Guangxi.

The main research objectives and research finding of this thesis is as follows:

(1) Structured data processing of TCD events in Guangxi. Fifty-one severe TCD suffered by Guangxi during 2005-2022 were selected as the research object to analyze the types, sources, characteristics, and major disaster data of TCD events in Guangxi. It mainly includes TC number, name in both Chinese and English, maximum wind speed extreme value (m/s) in Guangxi, duration of impact on Guangxi (hours), direction entering Guangxi, affected population, emergency relocation and resettlement of population, number of collapsed houses, the affected area of crops, direct economic losses and other data. Through the statistical analysis of the data of TCD in the past 18 years, it can be seen that TCD has caused great losses to the economy and society of Guangxi every year. This will provide data support to construct three situation awareness models of EL for TCD in Guangxi.

(2) Developing a RPMES for TCD in Guangxi. The RPMES is the premise of emergency supplies (ES) reserve and ES collection. At present, there is still a lack of effective methods to accurately determine the requirements of ES, and it is urgent to carry out exploration in this aspect. In this paper, 51 severe TCDs suffered by Guangxi from 2005 to 2022 were selected as the research object. The number of emergency relocations and resettlement among the characteristic elements of disaster data was selected as the independent variable, and the extreme central wind speed during the TC in Guangxi. The duration of its impact on Guangxi, the number of collapsed houses, and direct economic losses were selected as the dependent variables. The MLRM was used to construct the RPMES for TCD in Guangxi. Matlab was used for data analysis and optimization calculation, and finally a practical MLRM with significant relationship between the independent variable and the four dependent variables was obtained. This model can provide reference for all levels of Guangxi government to make ES reserve plan and purchase decision.

(3) Developing a LMESRC for TCD in Guangxi. On average, Guangxi experience 2 severe TCD yearly. A large number of disaster victims need governments at all levels to raise enough ES to carry out effective relief. However, there is no proper reserve center for TCD storage and collection of ES in Guangxi, so it is urgent to choose a suitable location to build the ESRC for TCD in Guangxi. To collect data on 16 severe TC suffered by 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from 2014 to 2021 and rescue data. An optimal LMESRC for TCD in Guangxi was established using the improved center of gravity method (CGM) based on GIS. After four iterations of calculation, the longitude and latitude coordinate S5(108.64, 21.98) were used as a suitable site to construct the ESRC for TCD in Guangxi to ensure the fastest and lowest cost delivery of ES to the disaster areas in Guangxi. According to the map of Tiandi, the actual place corresponding to this coordinate is near Liuwu Village next to Qinzhou East Railway Station, Qinnan District, Qinzhou, Guangxi. This location coordinate S5 can provide a reference for the Guangxi government to select a suitable address to construct the ESRC for TCD in Guangxi. The improved center of gravity location model based on GIS can also provide a reference for other provinces or cities to carry out ESRC locations.

(4) Developing an ESDM for TCD in Guangxi. The typical TC No. 1409 Super typhoon "Rammasun" and No. 1822 Super typhoon "Mangkhut" are selected as cases. Extract the characteristic elements of ESD (including the distribution and location information of the ES storage repositories at the provincial, prefectural, and county levels, various traffic lines and distances between the ES storage repositories and the disaster areas, and the ES storage data of the ES storage repositories, etc.). In view of such ESD problems of multi-supply points to multi-demand points, The traditional provincial → prefecture-level city → county ESDM and provincial → county direct supply ESDM for TCD in Guangxi were constructed respectively by linear programming model and operation method on the graph. By comparing the calculation results of the two models, it is found that the traditional provincial → prefecture-level city → county-level ESDM adopted by the Guangxi government is simple and convenient, but the cost is high. The cost of the improved provincial → county direct supply ESDM is lower, which can save 31.72% and 16.56% in the two disaster cases, and the dispatching effect is better. The direct supply model of ES from province to county can provide a reference for the emergency management departments of Guangxi governments at all levels to formulate ESD plans for TCD.

(5) Combining the situation awareness model of EL for TCD in Guangxi. The severe TCD events suffered by Guangxi during 2005-2022 are selected as the basis of data analysis of EL, and the RPMES, the LMESRC and the ESDM are developed based on the data of TCD. Finally, the function of the three models is integrated to form the overall situation awareness model of EL for TCD in Guangxi. The aim is to solve a series of urgent problems faced by emergency management departments of Guangxi governments at all levels when facing TCD.

-